Ian Shepherdson Quotes (157 Quotes)

This is great news. These are very helpful numbers to those -- including us -- who think the Fed will not raise rates next month.

Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.

Looks to us like tax rebate money is being spent, ... Retailers should have a good autumn.

This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.

The rise in oil prices was always likely to hit these numbers with a vengeance, and the petroleum deficit duly rose by 1.4 billion.

Greenspan acknowledged unambiguously that there is not yet enough data to be sure growth has slowed in a sustained way, ... But his willingness to dig deep to find possible reasons why it might have suggests he is ready to wait before raising rates again.

We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.

The Fed has begun to prepare the markets for higher interest rates, ... almost balanced.

At 296,000, claims have slipped back to a five-week low, ... This is simply too low a level to be consistent with a major change in the labor market.

It is beginning to look as though there has been a real improvement in the labor market at the start of this year.

Clearly, there is no near-term inflation threat coming from the labor market. In short, great numbers, which will prompt yet more talk of miracles.

It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend.

We think the trend in layoff is downwards, ... but we're not yet ready to argue that all the danger has passed.

This is something of a surprise, given the relative strength of most of the regional surveys. The latter are not always a perfect guide to the national ISM but they rarely send such a clear, but wrong, signal.

Companies seem to have acted very quickly this time around once they realized that economic growth was slowing sharply, ... Overall, the data suggest talk of a labor market meltdown is overdone.

Given the huge decline in consumer confidence, this (gain in spending) does not seem unreasonably weak, especially with consumers' real after-tax income growth slowing too.

Manufacturers are still miserable, and output will keep falling for some time, but they can now see light at the end of the tunnel, ... They are working off their excess inventory ... and are now hopeful of stronger orders by the year-end.

The March Beige Book paints a clear picture of an economy straining at the seams. Significantly, compared to recent Beige Books, there was more detail, and a more worrying tone, to the comments on the labor market.

The bottom line here is that industry is doing well.

This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole good news,

The report suggests that industrial orders are trending higher as manufacturing recovers from the Asia crisis. There are no real signs of a slowdown.

No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.

Core prices remain very subdued, and core pipeline pressure is non-existent, ... There is no inflation threat here for the foreseeable future.

At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.

At its current level, confidence is consistent with real consumers' spending growth of about 3 percent -- not great, but not a double-dip.

Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly.

The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.

We doubt this can be sustained as the reality of 2.60- plus sinks in. For now, though, it looks good.

Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.

A big headline drop was always in the cards after the weather-assisted surge in January, which hugely boosted retail activity.

Our measure of core sales, which excludes autos, gas and food, rose a pitiful 0.1 percent, the worst performance since April and impossible to square with Mr. Greenspan's assertion last week that the economy is regaining traction.

The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.

As far as we can tell, just about everyone now expects another 25-basis-point hike on May 16, which rather begs the question why the Fed did not act more boldly today and raise rates by 50 basis points, ... By the time of the May meeting, a bigger move might be forced upon the FOMC.

It is tempting to argue that two straight months of sales nearer to the 900,000 level than one million...is evidence of a real slowing in housing. But it probably tells us more about the awful weather across much of the country,

The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.

The Fed's Beige Book acknowledges some of the improvement evident in recent economic data, but the tone of the survey could not yet be described as a ringing endorsement of the recovery story,

(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,

It is hard to make the case that the inflation threat from import prices is serious. The trend is clearly not as good as in the recent past, but it is not bad enough to cause any problems on its own.

With manufacturing activity clearly accelerating...it is hard to see Monday's ISM report as anything but bad news for Treasuries and yet more evidence of the need for tighter policy,

The rise in (confidence) is presumably a reflection of the rebound in stock prices and -- though to a lesser extent -- the further cuts in interest rates,

The key number in this report, in our view, is the rise in the supply of homes for sale. There are now 14.4 percent more homes for sale than a year ago, while actual sales are up just 3.3 percent. With mortgage demand slipping a bit and supply rising, price gains cannot continue at their current pace.

The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.

These are spectacular numbers and confirm that the labor market is not at the moment the source of anything that could be plausibly described as inflationary pressure.

The question the Fed now faces is what will happen to growth looking forward in the wake of a 75-basis-point tightening

A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.

Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up.

These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,

With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.

There are currently more than a million displaced people, and I don't expect many of them to be back at work by the time of the September payroll survey.

Overall, the labor market is improving, but progress is still slow,