It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
Skeptics will argue this is just a post-war bounce that won't last, but we disagree, ... The ISM was in the mid-50s before the war, thanks to very loose policy, and there's no reason why it can't return to those levels very soon. The Fed does not need toIan Shepherdson
After 911, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
Ian Shepherdson
We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22,
Ian Shepherdson
The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.
Ian Shepherdson
There is nothing to be scared of here. When you take out several one-time gains including apparel, tobacco and lodging, prices were almost unchanged.
Ian Shepherdson
Companies seem to have acted very quickly this time around once they realized that economic growth was slowing sharply, ... Overall, the data suggest talk of a labor market meltdown is overdone.
Ian Shepherdson
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