This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
The bottom line is that a one-month decline in this measure does not reverse the clear, firm upward trend.Ian Shepherdson
This dip in claims is unlikely to prove significant. The trend, measured by the four-week moving average, is still rising after its turn of-the-year decline.
Ian Shepherdson
Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.
Ian Shepherdson
At its current level, confidence is consistent with real consumers' spending growth of about 3 percent -- not great, but not a double-dip.
Ian Shepherdson
Clearly there is nothing here at all to comfort the Fed.
Ian Shepherdson
We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22,
Ian Shepherdson
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