After 911, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
At least economic activity is no longer 'decelerating,' as reported in the previous beige book,Ian Shepherdson
If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.
Ian Shepherdson
No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.
Ian Shepherdson
Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.
Ian Shepherdson
Just about everyone who buys a house uses a mortgage, so a sustained drop in mortgage demand tells you where home sales are going, regardless of the current sales data.
Ian Shepherdson
This testimony did not give the impression that he is in a great hurry to cut rates immediately.
Ian Shepherdson
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