The labor market is tightening, but the tightening is not accelerating.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
It will profoundly damage Bush's ability to accomplish his legislative goals, ... drastic reforms of Social Security and Medicare, which would affect the state of public finances in the long run.Ian Shepherdson
The chairman will likely tell the House Budget Committee that conditions are set for recovery.
Ian Shepherdson
We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.
Ian Shepherdson
After 911, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
Ian Shepherdson
At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over.
Ian Shepherdson
One steep drop in housing starts does not make a downward trend, especially in a month which was very wet in the West and very cold in the Northeast. Still, the data are consistent with other signs of a softening housing market, most notably the drop in homebuilders' confidence. What really matters, though, is whether sales will fall fast enough to turn a softening into a collapse.
Ian Shepherdson
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