While claims at 350,000 or so would not be a disaster, they would be consistent with (monthly) payrolls trending at only about 125,000 -- not enough to push the unemployment rate any lower.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
Core prices remain very subdued, and core pipeline pressure is non-existent, ... There is no inflation threat here for the foreseeable future.Ian Shepherdson
Mr. Greenspan clearly wants to leave the door open to lower rates, but he was more explicit this time in his acknowledgement that there are risks on the other side.
Ian Shepherdson
The Fed will likely ease on Nov. 6, but the Beige Book has not changed the odds, ... And it tells us nothing about the future of the economy or Fed policy.
Ian Shepherdson
Companies seem to have acted very quickly this time around once they realized that economic growth was slowing sharply, ... Overall, the data suggest talk of a labor market meltdown is overdone.
Ian Shepherdson
If this is sustained we can be more hopeful the trade deficit will not rise further,
Ian Shepherdson
Claims have now been essentially static for three months, so even if the latest declines turn out to be unsustainable, the data will still show that the trend is no longer rising rapidly, and may not be rising at all, ... It looks like the worst of the worst is now over in the labor market.
Ian Shepherdson
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