The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.Ian Shepherdson
The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,
Ian Shepherdson
Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.
Ian Shepherdson
The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market, ... So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.
Ian Shepherdson
We think the trend in layoff is downwards, ... but we're not yet ready to argue that all the danger has passed.
Ian Shepherdson
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