Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
Both the unemployment rate and wages were stronger than consensus and they clearly make it very difficult for the Fed not to raise rates by a half percentage point.Ian Shepherdson
Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.
Ian Shepherdson
This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole good news,
Ian Shepherdson
There is nothing to be scared of here. When you take out several one-time gains including apparel, tobacco and lodging, prices were almost unchanged.
Ian Shepherdson
Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up.
Ian Shepherdson
A big headline drop was always in the cards after the weather-assisted surge in January, which hugely boosted retail activity.
Ian Shepherdson
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