The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
Behind the enormous distortions caused by the hurricanes, the underlying state of the labor market has continued to improve.Ian Shepherdson
The Fed will likely ease on Nov. 6, but the Beige Book has not changed the odds, ... And it tells us nothing about the future of the economy or Fed policy.
Ian Shepherdson
There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.
Ian Shepherdson
The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.
Ian Shepherdson
Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
Ian Shepherdson
The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.
Ian Shepherdson
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