Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.Ian Shepherdson
Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker. We expect growth to slow to 3 or less, led by a sharp slowing in consumption.
Ian Shepherdson
At least economic activity is no longer 'decelerating,' as reported in the previous beige book,
Ian Shepherdson
This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations, ... We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent.
Ian Shepherdson
Ignore the ISM at your peril, ... Assuming this report is not a fluke - everything we look at suggests it is very real - it is consistent with year-over-year GDP growth accelerating to 4 percent by the summer.
Ian Shepherdson
At its current level, confidence is consistent with real consumers' spending growth of about 3 percent -- not great, but not a double-dip.
Ian Shepherdson
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