We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
With manufacturing activity clearly accelerating...it is hard to see Monday's ISM report as anything but bad news for Treasuries and yet more evidence of the need for tighter policy,Ian Shepherdson
The Fed will likely ease on Nov. 6, but the Beige Book has not changed the odds, ... And it tells us nothing about the future of the economy or Fed policy.
Ian Shepherdson
The bottom line is that a one-month decline in this measure does not reverse the clear, firm upward trend.
Ian Shepherdson
Not pretty, and getting worse.
Ian Shepherdson
This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.
Ian Shepherdson
It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend.
Ian Shepherdson
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