Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
The report suggests that industrial orders are trending higher as manufacturing recovers from the Asia crisis. There are no real signs of a slowdown.Ian Shepherdson
This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations, ... We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent.
Ian Shepherdson
We doubt the October data will be that strong, but it will not be long. The final element of the recovery is falling into place.
Ian Shepherdson
As far as we can tell, just about everyone now expects another 25-basis-point hike on May 16, which rather begs the question why the Fed did not act more boldly today and raise rates by 50 basis points, ... By the time of the May meeting, a bigger move might be forced upon the FOMC.
Ian Shepherdson
The mystery is how to square with this with both the Redbook and Bloomberg chain store sales surveys, which pointed to a huge gain, ... Maybe it will come in March, or today's numbers will be revised up. Either way, this is a brief diversion, not a change
Ian Shepherdson
These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates, ... Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
Ian Shepherdson
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