This is great news. These are very helpful numbers to those -- including us -- who think the Fed will not raise rates next month.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
It now appears that the trend in jobless claims is stabilizing at about 400,000 per week, ... This is well above the trend level at this time last year, but it is no higher than in the spring. This means that layoffs are continuing at a rapid pace, but they are not accelerating.Ian Shepherdson
Mr. Greenspan clearly wants to leave the door open to lower rates, but he was more explicit this time in his acknowledgement that there are risks on the other side.
Ian Shepherdson
There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold.
Ian Shepherdson
A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,
Ian Shepherdson
It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend.
Ian Shepherdson
We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.
Ian Shepherdson
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