Our measure of core sales, which excludes autos, gas and food, rose a pitiful 0.1 percent, the worst performance since April and impossible to square with Mr. Greenspan's assertion last week that the economy is regaining traction.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.Ian Shepherdson
There should be no doubt that Mr. Greenspan's view has changed he now believes the economy is turning rather than just approaching the turn,
Ian Shepherdson
Clearly, these are disappointing numbers and should put to rest the notion that there a tech-driven miracle in U.S. productivity in the last few years, ... There was a boom, and booms drive up productivity -- until they bust.
Ian Shepherdson
If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound.
Ian Shepherdson
This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.
Ian Shepherdson
The switch is presumably to squash speculation that they are embarking on a new sequence of rate cuts, ... This is sensible -- they can always change their mind if they have to, but in the near term it will quiet the markets. It is also consistent with their medium-term view that the economy will indeed recover in the not-too-distant future.
Ian Shepherdson
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