Ian Shepherdson Quotes on Sales (9 Quotes)

To be sure, it would be premature to argue this is the start of a new, hyper-weak trend in home sales, ... Nonetheless, these numbers do send an unambiguous signal that the housing market is now past its peak.

The trend in sales is probably not as weak as this seems to suggest, but there is no question that the condoco-op market is slowing much more dramatically than the market for single-family homes. Even in the latter case, however, sales have fallen more than 10 from their summer peak.

No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.

Our measure of core sales, which excludes autos, gas and food, rose a pitiful 0.1 percent, the worst performance since April and impossible to square with Mr. Greenspan's assertion last week that the economy is regaining traction.

It is tempting to argue that two straight months of sales nearer to the 900,000 level than one million...is evidence of a real slowing in housing. But it probably tells us more about the awful weather across much of the country,

The key number in this report, in our view, is the rise in the supply of homes for sale. There are now 14.4 percent more homes for sale than a year ago, while actual sales are up just 3.3 percent. With mortgage demand slipping a bit and supply rising, price gains cannot continue at their current pace.

Only a few years ago, auto sales numbers like those seen recently would have automatically lead to expectations of higher prices, ... Now, increasing transparency in car prices, substantially due to the Internet, together with the automakers' ability to hold down unit labor costs, means that stronger sales do not necessarily lead to higher prices.

Just about everyone who buys a house uses a mortgage, so a sustained drop in mortgage demand tells you where home sales are going, regardless of the current sales data.

Even so, there is as yet no clear sign of a downturn in sales, despite the rise in mortgage rates over the past year, ... People are still shrugging off the rise in rates.