Ian Shepherdson Quotes on Business & Commerce (8 Quotes)

The Fed chairman is not habitually in the business of delivering shocks to the markets unless the circumstances are especially dire. That is certainly a fair description of the situation in the states hit by Katrina, but it does not apply to the rest of the economy.

Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.

The Chicago survey is very susceptible to changes in conditions in the auto industry, where activity has been very volatile in recent months.

The bottom line here is that industry is doing well.

The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.

There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.

If this is sustained we can be more hopeful the trade deficit will not rise further,

The Chicago PMI has been very volatile over the past couple of years, probably as a result of the tribulations of the auto industry. As a result it has become a less reliable indicator of movements in the national ISM and the January dip does not necessarily mean the ISM will follow suit.