The Chicago survey is very susceptible to changes in conditions in the auto industry, where activity has been very volatile in recent months.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound.Ian Shepherdson
There should be no doubt that Mr. Greenspan's view has changed he now believes the economy is turning rather than just approaching the turn,
Ian Shepherdson
Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.
Ian Shepherdson
The report suggests that industrial orders are trending higher as manufacturing recovers from the Asia crisis. There are no real signs of a slowdown.
Ian Shepherdson
As far as we can tell, confidence now seems to have run a bit ahead of the improvement in the stock market, and the failure of the Nasdaq and Dow to make further progress in recent weeks makes it doubtful that confidence will continue to rise at the May pace. The sharp rise in unemployment is likely to become a negative factor, too.
Ian Shepherdson
Clearly, these headlines will assuage some of the fears of a consumer collapse, and they mean the Fed will wait till the meeting before easing again. We still look for at least a 25-basis-point easing on Jan. 31.
Ian Shepherdson
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Gregor Mendel
It is a very busy mission: every day has some major goals that we have to get through, but my experience before has been that at least in the evening, you kind of take a deep breath and look around where you are and have some downtime.
Linda M. Godwin
There is no good reason for our cattle producers to have such limited market access. Our beef is the best in the world, and we need to be allowed to reach global markets.
Conrad Bums