If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
It will profoundly damage Bush's ability to accomplish his legislative goals, ... drastic reforms of Social Security and Medicare, which would affect the state of public finances in the long run.Ian Shepherdson
The bottom line here is that industry is doing well.
Ian Shepherdson
Mr. Greenspan is at least partly to blame for the turnaround in the fiscal position here -- his musings on the problems of ever-increasing surpluses were a clear green light to Congress to cut taxes.
Ian Shepherdson
The key number in this report, in our view, is the rise in the supply of homes for sale. There are now 14.4 percent more homes for sale than a year ago, while actual sales are up just 3.3 percent. With mortgage demand slipping a bit and supply rising, price gains cannot continue at their current pace.
Ian Shepherdson
If this is sustained we can be more hopeful the trade deficit will not rise further,
Ian Shepherdson
The Fed has begun to prepare the markets for higher interest rates, ... almost balanced.
Ian Shepherdson
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