Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
It is just too soon to be sure that the second-quarter slowdown will be sustained, ... The level of consumer confidence is still consistent with 5 percent spending growth.Ian Shepherdson
Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up.
Ian Shepherdson
Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
Ian Shepherdson
A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.
Ian Shepherdson
At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.
Ian Shepherdson
The March Beige Book paints a clear picture of an economy straining at the seams. Significantly, compared to recent Beige Books, there was more detail, and a more worrying tone, to the comments on the labor market.
Ian Shepherdson
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