With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound.Ian Shepherdson
The gains were uneven, however, with small declines in clothing and electronics, a decent 0.7 percent rise for general merchandise and a huge leap for non-store retailers. Provided January holds up -- surveys suggest so far, so good -- the overall holiday season will have been pretty good.
Ian Shepherdson
The trend in sales is probably not as weak as this seems to suggest, but there is no question that the condoco-op market is slowing much more dramatically than the market for single-family homes. Even in the latter case, however, sales have fallen more than 10 from their summer peak.
Ian Shepherdson
Eventually, we do expect housing to lead the economy into a sustained slowdown, but it will take time, and patience is not the markets' most obvious virtue,
Ian Shepherdson
With three sub-300,000 numbers in the past four weeks, it is beginning to look as though there has been some real improvement in the labor markets this year.
Ian Shepherdson
The drop in stock prices is no excuse to beginning cutting rates, as some in the market desperately want to believe, ... Given where oil prices are and given what the fundamentals still suggest, I don't see the Fed doing anything for the time being.
Ian Shepherdson
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