The gains were uneven, however, with small declines in clothing and electronics, a decent 0.7 percent rise for general merchandise and a huge leap for non-store retailers. Provided January holds up -- surveys suggest so far, so good -- the overall holiday season will have been pretty good.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
This report indicates manufacturing is continuing to rebound from the Asian crisis, which is exactly what the Fed expects.Ian Shepherdson
Claims have now been essentially static for three months, so even if the latest declines turn out to be unsustainable, the data will still show that the trend is no longer rising rapidly, and may not be rising at all, ... It looks like the worst of the worst is now over in the labor market.
Ian Shepherdson
His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
Ian Shepherdson
Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
Ian Shepherdson
Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.
Ian Shepherdson
No doubt bears will highlight the rise in continuing claims, up another 29,000, but we are unmoved A rising ratio of continuing to initial claims signals accelerating productivity growth, not a shaky recovery, ... Labor market conditions are improving --
Ian Shepherdson
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