No doubt bears will highlight the rise in continuing claims, up another 29,000, but we are unmoved A rising ratio of continuing to initial claims signals accelerating productivity growth, not a shaky recovery, ... Labor market conditions are improving --
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
The rise in (confidence) is presumably a reflection of the rebound in stock prices and -- though to a lesser extent -- the further cuts in interest rates,Ian Shepherdson
Greenspan acknowledged unambiguously that there is not yet enough data to be sure growth has slowed in a sustained way, ... But his willingness to dig deep to find possible reasons why it might have suggests he is ready to wait before raising rates again.
Ian Shepherdson
The gains were uneven, however, with small declines in clothing and electronics, a decent 0.7 percent rise for general merchandise and a huge leap for non-store retailers. Provided January holds up -- surveys suggest so far, so good -- the overall holiday season will have been pretty good.
Ian Shepherdson
Our measure of core sales, which excludes autos, gas and food, rose a pitiful 0.1 percent, the worst performance since April and impossible to square with Mr. Greenspan's assertion last week that the economy is regaining traction.
Ian Shepherdson
With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth.
Ian Shepherdson
The headline was pulled down by slightly bigger declines in gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil prices than we expected. Core PPI is now up just 1.7 year over year, down from May's 2.8 peak. It will slow further in the wake of the slowing in raw-materials prices, but the Fed cares much more about the labor market than PPI.
Ian Shepherdson
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