This puts upside risks in our forecast for 4.5-percent annualized fourth-quarter growth.
More Quotes from Maury Harris:
Combined with a steady jobless rate and a modestly higher stock market, we believe economic growth is sufficient to keep the Fed on hold for now.Maury Harris
Price pressures appear to be building at crude PPI levels, but the Fed will likely wait to respond until these pressures filter into the consumer price index. We do not expect that to occur until next year.
Maury Harris
The contained job gains will make it easier for the Fed to convince investors that it will not rush to tighten. We still expect tightening to start only next August.
Maury Harris
The recent declines in existing home sales corroborate the slowing in other housing-related data. We expect additional slowing in the housing market, including prices, in 2006. In turn, the cooling will probably result in a moderation in overall growth.
Maury Harris
In that context, he will lose credibility if he under-appreciates the extent to which (economic) growth is already weakening in response to earlier rate hikes.
Maury Harris
With consumption accounting for about 70 percent of GDP, the extra strength should add about 0.7 point to total GDP growth.
Maury Harris
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