Combined with a steady jobless rate and a modestly higher stock market, we believe economic growth is sufficient to keep the Fed on hold for now.
More Quotes from Maury Harris:
The bond market has been moving on two things today the movement of stocks and this speculation about the yuan.Maury Harris
In that context, he will lose credibility if he under-appreciates the extent to which (economic) growth is already weakening in response to earlier rate hikes.
Maury Harris
We now estimate that total real consumption rose at a 6.5-percent annual rate in the third quarter as a whole, above the 5.5 percent we assumed when we raised our estimate for total real GDP growth to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent.
Maury Harris
You typically see a rebound in the labor force when the economy starts to recover. But because businesses are operating so much more efficiently, there's a limit to the number of jobs available. Unemployment could still go up a few ticks.
Maury Harris
The bond market had been worried that we were near full employment and wage pressure would pick up and that the Federal Reserve would have to raise short term interest rates in response. But now that the all important employment cost index was up just 0.6 percent, the Fed doesn't need to raise short term rates because the economy is slowing down.
Maury Harris
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