You typically see a rebound in the labor force when the economy starts to recover. But because businesses are operating so much more efficiently, there's a limit to the number of jobs available. Unemployment could still go up a few ticks.
More Quotes from Maury Harris:
We are seeing a 'soft landing' rather than a 'hard landing' in consumer spending for a couple of reasons. First, although job growth is slowing, wages are still rising, with average hourly earnings up 0.4 in October. Second, despite recent stock market turmoil, consumer spirits are holding up reasonably well.Maury Harris
This puts upside risks in our forecast for 4.5-percent annualized fourth-quarter growth.
Maury Harris
With consumption accounting for about 70 percent of GDP, the extra strength should add about 0.7 point to total GDP growth.
Maury Harris
The contained job gains will make it easier for the Fed to convince investors that it will not rush to tighten. We still expect tightening to start only next August.
Maury Harris
Difficulties of seasonally adjusting the retail sector around year-end suggest that the two-month average -- about flat -- is a more reliable gauge of hiring trends.
Maury Harris
What we do know is that the system manages to work -- we've been dealing with import penetration in this country for over three decades. Over that period of time, the unemployment rate has had its ups and downs, but there's been no trend increase in unemployment.
Maury Harris
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