Difficulties of seasonally adjusting the retail sector around year-end suggest that the two-month average -- about flat -- is a more reliable gauge of hiring trends.
More Quotes from Maury Harris:
We believe that the Fed will require both consistent solid hiring and a rise in inflation before it begins to lift rates.Maury Harris
You typically see a rebound in the labor force when the economy starts to recover. But because businesses are operating so much more efficiently, there's a limit to the number of jobs available. Unemployment could still go up a few ticks.
Maury Harris
We now estimate that total real consumption rose at a 6.5-percent annual rate in the third quarter as a whole, above the 5.5 percent we assumed when we raised our estimate for total real GDP growth to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent.
Maury Harris
The contained job gains will make it easier for the Fed to convince investors that it will not rush to tighten. We still expect tightening to start only next August.
Maury Harris
The bond market had been worried that we were near full employment and wage pressure would pick up and that the Federal Reserve would have to raise short term interest rates in response. But now that the all important employment cost index was up just 0.6 percent, the Fed doesn't need to raise short term rates because the economy is slowing down.
Maury Harris
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