We now estimate that total real consumption rose at a 6.5-percent annual rate in the third quarter as a whole, above the 5.5 percent we assumed when we raised our estimate for total real GDP growth to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent.
More Quotes from Maury Harris:
In that context, he will lose credibility if he under-appreciates the extent to which (economic) growth is already weakening in response to earlier rate hikes.Maury Harris
Difficulties of seasonally adjusting the retail sector around year-end suggest that the two-month average -- about flat -- is a more reliable gauge of hiring trends.
Maury Harris
This puts upside risks in our forecast for 4.5-percent annualized fourth-quarter growth.
Maury Harris
In crafting today's FOMC statement, we believe Fed officials were undoubtedly influenced by the perception that mixed signals from the Fed, and possibly some loss of credibility, accounted for some of the recent surge in bond yields.
Maury Harris
With consumption accounting for about 70 percent of GDP, the extra strength should add about 0.7 point to total GDP growth.
Maury Harris
Through the volatility, the trend in claims is gradually downward again, consistent with the labor market slowly starting to regain momentum after a setback in late 2002.
Maury Harris
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