The bond market has been moving on two things today the movement of stocks and this speculation about the yuan.
More Quotes from Maury Harris:
The bond market had been worried that we were near full employment and wage pressure would pick up and that the Federal Reserve would have to raise short term interest rates in response. But now that the all important employment cost index was up just 0.6 percent, the Fed doesn't need to raise short term rates because the economy is slowing down.Maury Harris
This puts upside risks in our forecast for 4.5-percent annualized fourth-quarter growth.
Maury Harris
Difficulties of seasonally adjusting the retail sector around year-end suggest that the two-month average -- about flat -- is a more reliable gauge of hiring trends.
Maury Harris
We believe that the Fed will require both consistent solid hiring and a rise in inflation before it begins to lift rates.
Maury Harris
The implication is that raw winter weather may have depressed starts last month, particularly late in the month. Even so, starts remained above the 2003 average of 1.85 million units.
Maury Harris
We now estimate that total real consumption rose at a 6.5-percent annual rate in the third quarter as a whole, above the 5.5 percent we assumed when we raised our estimate for total real GDP growth to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent.
Maury Harris
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