Harvinder Kalirai Quotes (14 Quotes)

At these levels, the Australian dollar is looking attractive. A decline in U. S. interest-rate expectations is beneficial for Australia.

If manufacturing is recovering from this drag on growth, which is already strong, it is probably going to raise some concerns at the Fed.

If the market begins to expect a more imminent end to the Fed's tightening cycle that would certainly remove the interest rate support for the dollar,

If you look back to 1994 when the Fed was hiking rates continuously, after every rate hike the Fed adopted a neutral bias. However, the tightening cycle continued until early '95, for a total of 300 basis points (3 percent). We are not looking for that type of tightening cycle this time, but nevertheless it does suggest that the neutral bias does not preclude further rate hikes down the road.

We did expect a sharp deterioration of the trade balance. The real story on the trade numbers is that the import surge reflects very solid domestic demand.

With the Fed stopping, and policy elsewhere in Europe and Japan going in the opposite direction, it should be relatively positive for the euro and yen.

This is one weak number in the context of an extremely strong economy. One data point doesn't make a trend,

High commodity prices are boosting Brazil's terms of trade and leading to record trade surpluses. A favorable external backdrop and still high real interest rates should support the Brazilian real.

There are very early signs of (a manufacturing slowdown), but I don't think they're conclusive enough to halt the Fed from tightening policy further, ... But I think, ultimately, with the economy running hot and inflation on a clear upswing, we see headline inflation moving towards and perhaps even surpassing 3 percent as we head into next year.

We're starting to see positive signs that the Japanese business cycle may be moving around. The dollar-yen should trade lower in coming months.

The trend is still toward wider deficits, so this is a concern for the U.S. dollar. I continue to forecast it lower.

There are a few signs of cracks beneath the surface in the U.S. economy, starting with the weak durable goods and confidence figures last week, and now with the rise in oil.

We're seeing a benign neglect in terms of the weakness of the Japanese yen. There's little reason for the Japanese to be worried because it seems the lower the yen gets the bigger the support it gives to exporters.

The commodity story remains very positive for Australia. Relative to commodities prices the Australian dollar isn't overvalued.