We did expect a sharp deterioration of the trade balance. The real story on the trade numbers is that the import surge reflects very solid domestic demand.
More Quotes from Harvinder Kalirai:
We're seeing a benign neglect in terms of the weakness of the Japanese yen. There's little reason for the Japanese to be worried because it seems the lower the yen gets the bigger the support it gives to exporters.Harvinder Kalirai
If you look back to 1994 when the Fed was hiking rates continuously, after every rate hike the Fed adopted a neutral bias. However, the tightening cycle continued until early '95, for a total of 300 basis points (3 percent). We are not looking for that type of tightening cycle this time, but nevertheless it does suggest that the neutral bias does not preclude further rate hikes down the road.
Harvinder Kalirai
The commodity story remains very positive for Australia. Relative to commodities prices the Australian dollar isn't overvalued.
Harvinder Kalirai
The trend is still toward wider deficits, so this is a concern for the U.S. dollar. I continue to forecast it lower.
Harvinder Kalirai
There are very early signs of (a manufacturing slowdown), but I don't think they're conclusive enough to halt the Fed from tightening policy further, ... But I think, ultimately, with the economy running hot and inflation on a clear upswing, we see headline inflation moving towards and perhaps even surpassing 3 percent as we head into next year.
Harvinder Kalirai
At these levels, the Australian dollar is looking attractive. A decline in U. S. interest-rate expectations is beneficial for Australia.
Harvinder Kalirai
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