The trend is still toward wider deficits, so this is a concern for the U.S. dollar. I continue to forecast it lower.
More Quotes from Harvinder Kalirai:
There are very early signs of (a manufacturing slowdown), but I don't think they're conclusive enough to halt the Fed from tightening policy further, ... But I think, ultimately, with the economy running hot and inflation on a clear upswing, we see headline inflation moving towards and perhaps even surpassing 3 percent as we head into next year.Harvinder Kalirai
We're starting to see positive signs that the Japanese business cycle may be moving around. The dollar-yen should trade lower in coming months.
Harvinder Kalirai
High commodity prices are boosting Brazil's terms of trade and leading to record trade surpluses. A favorable external backdrop and still high real interest rates should support the Brazilian real.
Harvinder Kalirai
We're seeing a benign neglect in terms of the weakness of the Japanese yen. There's little reason for the Japanese to be worried because it seems the lower the yen gets the bigger the support it gives to exporters.
Harvinder Kalirai
We did expect a sharp deterioration of the trade balance. The real story on the trade numbers is that the import surge reflects very solid domestic demand.
Harvinder Kalirai
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