The thing that helped the economy so much was a drop in interest rates, which meant lower mortgage rates, which meant consumers have been able to tap the wealth in their homes by refinancing and taking equity out of their homes. With rates having backed up so sharply, refinancing is not such a bargain any more.
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All the good growth is in the forecasts, in the idea that financial conditions have eased. But we've seen that doesn't always turn into actual good growth.Rory Robertson
After a long period of inactivity, the tide looks to be turning on the local interest-rate front.
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Just as the market overshot on the downside in yield in MayJune, the risk is that it now overshoots on the upside.
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The behavior of equity prices from here can make the economy heaven or hell. The further equity prices fall, the gloomier consumers and business people will become, the more corporate and financial disasters will be unearthed, and the less willing lenders will be to lend and spenders to spend.
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It leaves open the door for the Reserve Bank to raise official interest rates sooner rather than later.
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