Rory Robertson Quotes (28 Quotes)

I'm not sure how markets might react. On one hand, you could see the shorts kicking in, pushing it higher, but on the other hand, you could see investors feeling a bit nervous because the Fed is saying things are worse than they thought.

The thing driving service prices is wage growth, and after two years of sub-par economic growth, we've got wages decelerating. If the Fed doesn't get the economy growing at an above-trend pace in the next couple of years, deflation will arise.

The Republicans have control of the Senate, but the economy is still struggling. Maybe Republican control will lead to some tax cuts, but that's not going to happen in the near term. The U.S. economy needs all the help it can get, and soon.

This number doesn't tell us much at all -- the seasonal factors are all over the shop. It only means something if it's maintained over the next several weeks.

The Fed ultimately will be forced to cut rates further because we have had this ongoing issue of sub-par growth, disappointment on the jobs front and core inflation edging lower. People are talking about a terrific snap-back in the economy after the war,

It's very clear that there's minimal inflation pressures in the U.S. beyond the oil-price pressures. A lot of fundamental players will see value in the 10- year Treasuries at 4.8 percent levels.

If the economy and equity markets ... remain weak post-Iraq, the Fed will be forced to cut rates further, but that's not something Greenspan will be keen to chat about. The Fed clearly feels that part of its job is to whistle a happy tune.

If gross domestic product prints 2.75 or 3 percent, it's broadly where the market is. People put very little weight on the fact that any pressure on inflation in the U.S. is quite modest and that's breeding low and steady bond yields.

The lesson from Australia is, as long as interest rates stay relatively low, the market will cool, not crash.

All the good growth is in the forecasts, in the idea that financial conditions have eased. But we've seen that doesn't always turn into actual good growth.

I am skeptical that this time will be different.

The behavior of equity prices from here can make the economy heaven or hell. The further equity prices fall, the gloomier consumers and business people will become, the more corporate and financial disasters will be unearthed, and the less willing lenders will be to lend and spenders to spend.

It leaves open the door for the Reserve Bank to raise official interest rates sooner rather than later.

While Fed policy-makers have suggested a need to see weak post -war data before being convinced of any need to cut ... it is entirely possible that the recent pre -war data have been sufficiently shocking ... to make a majority of them keen to move before the next meeting.

It's too early to say with great confidence that things are definitely getting worse, but if we get another month or two of payrolls declines, there won't be any shortage of people saying a double dip has started.

The sharp rise in mortgage rates that is now under way threatens to limit the refinancing boom, limiting the cash that will be dropped into U.S. consumers' hands during the critical holiday-shopping season.

At the corporate level, the big downturn in equity prices has smashed company pension funds, forcing companies to put more money back into their pension plans. Anything that helps to stop the downturn in equities could be helpful.

The thing that helped the economy so much was a drop in interest rates, which meant lower mortgage rates, which meant consumers have been able to tap the wealth in their homes by refinancing and taking equity out of their homes. With rates having backed up so sharply, refinancing is not such a bargain any more.

This is the first time the new Fed Chairman has spoken to an audience other than politicians and it's a week before the next policy meeting, so it's no wonder people are tense.

Just as the market overshot on the downside in yield in MayJune, the risk is that it now overshoots on the upside.

The markets were a little disappointed that the Fed didn't give any explicit hint that a pause is around the corner.

Obviously, a big rise in the core CPI would get the ball rolling toward another hike, but it's far from clear that will be the outcome.

The Fed is trying to do what it can, but the history of the past 200 years is that big booms tend to end badly -- big equity market booms in particular. The Fed so far has done a magnificent job of holding the show together, but we don't know what effects of the bubble are still in the pipeline.

Unemployment at 6 percent means the Fed has just lost six full years of progress towards lower unemployment in just six quarters. With its preferred measure of core inflation at the lowest level since the 1960s, the Fed probably requires a run of monthly payroll gains of 150,000 to 200,000 before it will feel any real need to tighten.

After a long period of inactivity, the tide looks to be turning on the local interest-rate front.

The economic data are what determine what the Fed will do today they don't see last night's result as a sea change.

The markets are coming to understand that policymakers will be inclined to keep rates very low for an extended period -- the FOMC (Fed rate-setting committee) can still only dream that the economy will be strong enough in 2002 to justify a rate hike.

There's a perception that the economy is actually doing quite well, in particular the labor market. It's a fairly straightforward assumption the Fed would want to hike rates in March and perhaps in May. You might see bond yields go higher.