We expect a drop to 390,000 next week, but an even lower number cannot be ruled out,
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
This dip in claims is unlikely to prove significant. The trend, measured by the four-week moving average, is still rising after its turn of-the-year decline.Ian Shepherdson
At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over.
Ian Shepherdson
The rise in (confidence) is presumably a reflection of the rebound in stock prices and -- though to a lesser extent -- the further cuts in interest rates,
Ian Shepherdson
The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.
Ian Shepherdson
Clearly, these headlines will assuage some of the fears of a consumer collapse, and they mean the Fed will wait till the meeting before easing again. We still look for at least a 25-basis-point easing on Jan. 31.
Ian Shepherdson
Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up.
Ian Shepherdson
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