This report will leave the markets still pushing for a Fed ease...but perhaps with a bit less conviction, ... It is still not a done deal.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.Ian Shepherdson
The March Beige Book paints a clear picture of an economy straining at the seams. Significantly, compared to recent Beige Books, there was more detail, and a more worrying tone, to the comments on the labor market.
Ian Shepherdson
The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.
Ian Shepherdson
The upcoming data will soon enough force the Fed to change its stance, otherwise it will begin to look ridiculous,
Ian Shepherdson
Ignore the ISM at your peril, ... Assuming this report is not a fluke - everything we look at suggests it is very real - it is consistent with year-over-year GDP growth accelerating to 4 percent by the summer.
Ian Shepherdson
The headline was pulled down by slightly bigger declines in gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil prices than we expected. Core PPI is now up just 1.7 year over year, down from May's 2.8 peak. It will slow further in the wake of the slowing in raw-materials prices, but the Fed cares much more about the labor market than PPI.
Ian Shepherdson
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