His testimony leaves us thinking that a June 25 easing is far from a done deal -- it will depend on the data,
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.Ian Shepherdson
It is hard to make the case that the inflation threat from import prices is serious. The trend is clearly not as good as in the recent past, but it is not bad enough to cause any problems on its own.
Ian Shepherdson
There is a specific reference in February to 'the pace of policy moves at upcoming meetings ... would depend on incoming data', suggesting a degree of potential flexibility that was absent from the December minutes,
Ian Shepherdson
Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up.
Ian Shepherdson
We think the trend in layoff is downwards, ... but we're not yet ready to argue that all the danger has passed.
Ian Shepherdson
It is just too soon to be sure that the second-quarter slowdown will be sustained, ... The level of consumer confidence is still consistent with 5 percent spending growth.
Ian Shepherdson
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