The thing driving service prices is wage growth, and after two years of sub-par economic growth, we've got wages decelerating. If the Fed doesn't get the economy growing at an above-trend pace in the next couple of years, deflation will arise.
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Just as the market overshot on the downside in yield in MayJune, the risk is that it now overshoots on the upside.Rory Robertson
Unemployment at 6 percent means the Fed has just lost six full years of progress towards lower unemployment in just six quarters. With its preferred measure of core inflation at the lowest level since the 1960s, the Fed probably requires a run of monthly payroll gains of 150,000 to 200,000 before it will feel any real need to tighten.
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The thing that helped the economy so much was a drop in interest rates, which meant lower mortgage rates, which meant consumers have been able to tap the wealth in their homes by refinancing and taking equity out of their homes. With rates having backed up so sharply, refinancing is not such a bargain any more.
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The lesson from Australia is, as long as interest rates stay relatively low, the market will cool, not crash.
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The Republicans have control of the Senate, but the economy is still struggling. Maybe Republican control will lead to some tax cuts, but that's not going to happen in the near term. The U.S. economy needs all the help it can get, and soon.
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Based on Keywords: above-trend, decelerating, sub-parAnd, as a matter of fact, I am the chairman of the Amadou Diallo Foundation.
David Dinkins
I would take lots of falls and you know, get shot three or four times and this sort of thing, so all that sort of stuff. And there are tussles with various characters. I like that kind of thing.
Marton Csokas
We do have a problem in this country. You can either make a movie and ignore that, or you can acknowledge it and say, this is the water that we're living in. You know this - the movie lives in this - it's centered around this particular problem, and I chose to acknowledge it.
Nick Cassavetes