Unemployment at 6 percent means the Fed has just lost six full years of progress towards lower unemployment in just six quarters. With its preferred measure of core inflation at the lowest level since the 1960s, the Fed probably requires a run of monthly payroll gains of 150,000 to 200,000 before it will feel any real need to tighten.
More Quotes from Rory Robertson:
After a long period of inactivity, the tide looks to be turning on the local interest-rate front.Rory Robertson
This number doesn't tell us much at all -- the seasonal factors are all over the shop. It only means something if it's maintained over the next several weeks.
Rory Robertson
It's too early to say with great confidence that things are definitely getting worse, but if we get another month or two of payrolls declines, there won't be any shortage of people saying a double dip has started.
Rory Robertson
It leaves open the door for the Reserve Bank to raise official interest rates sooner rather than later.
Rory Robertson
At the corporate level, the big downturn in equity prices has smashed company pension funds, forcing companies to put more money back into their pension plans. Anything that helps to stop the downturn in equities could be helpful.
Rory Robertson
There's a perception that the economy is actually doing quite well, in particular the labor market. It's a fairly straightforward assumption the Fed would want to hike rates in March and perhaps in May. You might see bond yields go higher.
Rory Robertson
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