John Silvia Quotes (61 Quotes)

The decline in retail, leisure and transportation employment suggests rising business caution independent of any short-term storm,

People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.

I don't think you have to worry about a profit squeeze, but don't be surprised when people start shouting profit growth has peaked. A lot of companies that are seeing increased costs for raw materials will not be able to pass them on to the consumers.

On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations.

I think it's just oil and optimism about the New Year. I think oil is the driving factor due to the warmer weather, but people are now looking for better than expected (fourth-quarter) earnings, better than expected retail sales number. There's a host of good numbers out there.

You could have dismissed it six months ago as a one-time hit,

The question is often asked When will capital spending kick in I answer that it already has.

Increased domestic demand is now being satisfied by supply from abroad. Fewer domestic jobs have been created than the average historical experience and predicted by the models used by policy makers.

I think it's way overdue for this administration to get tough on spending,

We are currently estimating first-quarter US real gross domestic product growth at 5.3 per cent and feel the risks are nearly uniformly stacked on the upside.

Manufacturing sector employment is likely to improve in the months ahead. However, employment gains are likely to remain below par.

Summer months can be particularly hazardous for forecasters, ... The timing of the end of the school year, seasonal hiring patterns and even weather can distort the monthly figure.

The language will clearly be different. He'll give you a direct answer.

Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.

Labor costs were one of the key inflation concerns cited by Chairman (Alan) Greenspan in his latest testimony, ... Our outlook reinforces his concern.

Growth looks solid. The problem is prices paid were up again, suggesting inflation pressures remain a concern.

It's a good number, and shows the economy continues to move ahead. What's great is that it's broad-based growth. All the basic components are showing forward motion, which is bullish going forward.

You have the Baby Boomers having the resources to buy condominiums, betting on the increase in value in the next six months, ... That activity may be the first to feel the crunch if the housing bubble bursts.

We definitely have to figure that once tax filing season is done and tax refunds are cashed, we do expect consumer spending will slow down in the second half of this year, ... I don't see any way to fudge that (higher financing costs). You're not getting the employment gains or wage and income gains to offset that.

That's going to be driven by the decision making of the new Fed chairman.

You can no longer make the argument that there is a lot of excess capacity out there. The bias on inflation is a little bit to the upside and the Fed has to be careful about that.

The evidence so far would suggest we're probably going to have a below-average employment gain in this recovery.

Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.

We avoided the sticker shock from high heating bills in October because it was so warm. If it stays warm through Thanksgiving, we should have a good holiday shopping season.

If we get increased demand, where is the supply coming from Is it domestic, or is it imported from Canada, Latin America and Asia That's still an open question,

I think futures are up because people are looking ahead to today's numbers and seeing that this economy continues to move ahead very nicely, no matter what problems a specific company may be reporting.

The economic recovery has legs -- those of a pony, not yet a quarter horse.

It does create a lot confusion and leads to different sides telling different stories -- not useful for making good public policy for the labor market,

The problem is, it doesn't look like a leadership position. Top Wall Street guys aren't going to hang around and just be salesmen.

I've heard a lot of discussion the number could come out stronger. We have different models, and a couple of them have estimates where the number is higher.

If they don't move to a neutral position, the bond market will react negatively. If the Fed sits there and reiterates the same risk on inflation, the bond market is going to look at this and say the Fed is way behind the curve.

The outlook accounting for Katrina suggests growth will slow in both the third and fourth quarter due to slower consumer spending.

They see these older cities that others may have passed over or thought for dead as environments where they can really create their own living space.

The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.

I think Katrina's put the kibosh on this whole thing, ... You're going to lose so many jobs. It's going to take time to get this all back up.

I think clearly the retail employment number is goofy. I think when that number is revised and we look back several months, we'll eventually see a gain.

If people perceive that all-time high as 'normal,' that's going to make it very difficult to convince them that jobs are plentiful.

An economy in neutral has started to move forward.

Manufacturing growth has moderated in recent months, as the cycle moderates despite the hype about the new-found recovery.

This is really the first post-NAFTA, post-WTO economic recovery we've ever had in this country. Because of the globalization of the labor market, the relationship between economic growth and employment is different this time than it has been in the past.

As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.

Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate,

Defense spending tends to be very lumpy in terms of the quarter in which it hits. When you're in the middle of a war, you have to have goods delivered. But even if it had been 3.6, it would still be respectable growth.

Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.

I suspect that there's a little optimism that the Fed will signal that they are just about done, that they'll change their language from saying 'further policy firming may be' to saying it 'might be' needed.

There has to be concern about sustainability of growth overseas Japan is central to that issue, ... If people are looking at fundamentals, that's the only news they have to look at this morning.

But I don't think a prudent business or household manager can dismiss these energy prices today. We'll have to see what impact this all has on spending, employment plans and the rest.

This good news supports the view of continued economic and employment gains with limited upside risk of rising interest rates.

In no way is that positive for the administration in the fall. We are going to be in Iraq at the same time. It's war and the (slowing) economy. That has to be negative for the administration.

That means there is even more slack in the labor market than we had previously thought, giving the Fed even more reason to sit tight for the next several months.