I've heard a lot of discussion the number could come out stronger. We have different models, and a couple of them have estimates where the number is higher.
More Quotes from John Silvia:
We avoided the sticker shock from high heating bills in October because it was so warm. If it stays warm through Thanksgiving, we should have a good holiday shopping season.John Silvia
We definitely have to figure that once tax filing season is done and tax refunds are cashed, we do expect consumer spending will slow down in the second half of this year, ... I don't see any way to fudge that (higher financing costs). You're not getting the employment gains or wage and income gains to offset that.
John Silvia
But I don't think a prudent business or household manager can dismiss these energy prices today. We'll have to see what impact this all has on spending, employment plans and the rest.
John Silvia
What you're seeing is that inflation is rising, ... It's still at a low level, but you know what the trend is. The question to ask is, How much is too much At what point does the Fed say it's risen enough that we don't want it to go any higher That's the difficult question to answer.
John Silvia
I think clearly the retail employment number is goofy. I think when that number is revised and we look back several months, we'll eventually see a gain.
John Silvia
Increased domestic demand is now being satisfied by supply from abroad. Fewer domestic jobs have been created than the average historical experience and predicted by the models used by policy makers.
John Silvia
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