John Lonski Quotes (62 Quotes)

The decline by the PPI overall and the dip by the core PPI is very much consistent with the general absence of inflation risks,

It looks as though core inflation is back, ... We have the core CPI now growing at an average monthly rate of roughly 0.3 percent thus far in 2004. That adds up to a rate hike happening sooner rather than later.

The underlying theme (in the Fed's statement) is the same but the Fed added the statement on the potential for higher inflation risks in order to reassure global investors that the Fed very much remains committed to pursuing price stability.

The dip by the core PPI brings attention to how inflation is not an issue in the credit market and it's the least of the Federal Reserve's worries.

This is a day the bond should have been off by a half a point, ... U.S. interest rates are extremely indifferent to economic data right now.

Well, granted there still might be some temporary setbacks with the Japanese economy, but let us not forget that the major reason we had the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times at the end of 1998,

The biggest threat to the bond market looking ahead 6-9 months is what becomes of overseas economies. Let us not forget that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 1998 because of the unexpected severity of overseas economic slumps.

This largely explains why the credit market shrugged the number off. And the LEI up three-tenths (of a percentage point) shows the economy isn't in danger of slowing anytime soon.

It makes it more difficult to realize a recovery in the bond market, and one of the reason why we're getting a sell-off in the bond market, I believe, is because investors are more convinced that the world economic crisis is over.

It's an attractive story, ... Here you have an investment grade company selling a 30-year treasury at a nice premium.

The major reason why the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year mortgage yield fell to near 30-year lows was because of pronounced weakness in overseas economies. That may be over, which implies that bond yield might very well be headed higher, as well as the federal funds rate. . . The sooner we get back on a normal course, the better.

If it turns out that a number of overseas economies mimic the very strong economy now being reported by Korea, we could be looking at a surprisingly steep upturn in Treasury bond yields later this year.

It just hasn't happened, and it probably won't happen simply by changing corporate tax legislation, ... The truth is that job creation in this economic recovery is well below the levels of previous cycles, with or without the repatriated funds.

We have hard evidence that there has been a pullback of foreign buying of U.S .Treasury securities, ... But more importantly, faster economic growth abroad will be to the benefit of the U.S. economy, will provide a boost to corporate revenues, perhaps add to the demand for labor, which can only increase inflation risks and puts more pressure on the Fed to eventually hike interest rates again.

We also had an outright inversion in 1998 and there was no recession until 2001, although I would add there was a deterioration in corporate financial health that got underway in 1998 that didn't really end until 2002.

I wouldn't be especially concerned about a major episode of financial distress resulting from the recent and forthcoming Fed rate hikes. I don't think it would be enough to cause pain -- unless you have people managing financial institutions being very reckless in their oversight of the situation.

We have gone from a situation where investors were on the verge of a nervous breakdown to a level of high anxiety.

A downturn in profitability will not impede its debt repayment capacity,

The fact that oil is remaining above 40 leaves me all the more convinced that core CPI will continue to climb higher, that we're on the verge of having the annual rate break above 2 percent,

Unless energy prices ease, the holiday shopping season will probably be mediocre at best.

Today, the U.S. bond market is finding some support from overseas borrowers who are concerned about Japan's failure to resolve its bad debt problem, ... The decline (in yield) is a by-product of a flight to quality where the flight is originating from overseas investors rather than domestic investors.

I think people believe (Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan) is not going to shock the market with a half-point rate hike, ... There's no reason to shock the credit market and the economy with a half-point rate hike.

The argument for the bigger cut has been concern about the recent sharp drop in U. S. stock prices. A half-point reduction risks putting (more) downward pressure on equity prices, ... The Fed is dealing with the unknown of how much more pervasive stock ownership is today.

indicates strong demand for home purchases that will lend a boost to housing activity for the foreseeable future.

Nobody really knows what the future holds for this particular security because of the different messages we're getting from the Treasury.

The global investment community is disappointed with this new Japanese government.

A bigger-than-expected jump in durable goods could remind investors that overseas growth is accelerating.

The trade deficit is the prime candidate to cause an upward revision to the fourth-quarter GDP.

Travel is good, restaurant sales are brisk, and we find an acceleration of retail sales that surprises me.

This reminds us there are two sides of the rapid growth story.

It was a very important lesson for investors to learn. For those investors who have considerable exposure to equities, it's not a bad idea to have some holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds to serve as a type of buffer, a type of insurance policy in the event stocks do drop sharply in price.

The credit market right now is bracing for some bad news, ... Yields should continue heading higher until the U.S. economy slackens appreciably.

It would help to put in a bottom if we had a clearer idea of what may happen in Iraq,

I would say they're (the Fed) going to take a bye this time around. That's because there ought to be a second consecutive weak retail sales report. We're going so far as to say retail sales are going to go down again after having dropped in April.

The super-sized issue from ATT reminds us of how . . . investor demand for long-term investment-grade corporate bonds is very strong. Corporate America has more than offset (the) reduction in federal borrowing . . . brought on by the emergence of the federal budget surplus.

We can talk about GDP, but what does that mean to most people The everyday American has a better handle on where the Dow is today, where it was not long ago and where it was at its peak.

The market's stepping back. There's maybe a little profit taking after gains of last week.

Investors do not believe that the Brazilian crisis will spread up to Mexico and thereby present a very real danger to the U.S..

Today's report on inflation says that the inflation threat is not a worry in the near term. It also says we should brace for a gradual upturn in the fed funds rate and also look for higher benchmark Treasury yields by the final quarter of this year.

What we have here is a dangerous mix of fast-growing debt and fast-rising unemployment that could quickly put the brakes on consumer spending.

The Dow breaking above 11,000 might be a nice holiday present for the U.S. economy in that it should boost the confidence of both consumers and businesses and lay the basis for a livelier-than-expected 2006.

We could approach (a yield of) 6-12 percent (on the 30-year bond) if the employment cost index ends up on the high side.

Five years of having equity market growth of 25 percent a year seems to be a thing of the past, ... The law of long-term averages is reasserting itself.

The Fed will eventually move to a neutral stance, and I don't think we're there yet. When we start to see payrolls of 200,000 a month, I expect the yield on the 10-year note will hit 4.5 percent and the Fed will become less patient.

This brings the possibility of steeper-than-anticipated gains in profits.

He didn't give the impression that the Fed is panicking.

I don't think it's going to stop. It may be a fine opportunity to lock in a fixed rate that may prove to be relatively attractive historically.

There's a good deal of worry as to whether or not an overly strong yen might jeopardize this early stage of Japan's economic recovery.

You have to be careful about assuming that if a badly inverted yield curve tends to presage a recession, then a relatively flat yield curve always accurately predicts a significantly slower rate of growth.

is in no hurry to go ahead and increase interest rates.