Gary Samore Quotes (24 Quotes)

The Russians need cooperation with Iran to deal with their soft underbelly.

I think it is an excellent proposal, but I am skeptical that the proposal would be accepted by the Iranian government.

The most difficult thing for leaders of the intelligence community is to tell the political leadership that they're really not sure, that they really don't have good information and therefore they're in the realm of guesswork,

But such conclusions in Tehran are a high-stakes gamble, as is likely to be any Security Council response. Numerous safeguard violations over the past 20 years means that until Iran restores confidence in its nuclear program, it should accept limits on activities that are dual use, and have military applications, ... There is a very strong legal case, but Council members are going to be very reluctant to impose significant sanctions on Iran.

The Russians and Chinese will back action, the question is what kind of action,

When I talk to Iranians, there seems to be a consensus that Iran needs to have a latent nuclear weapon capability, in other words an option,

I think the council will react very cautiously, very incrementally. It will take time, but there is no urgency. Iran is still a couple of years from having a nuclear-weapons capability, and there are some pretty significant technical problems.

The most interesting discussion is about political calculations and how Iran weighs the risks and benefits of acquiring nuclear weapons capability.

When you talk to Iranians, there seems to be a consensus that Iran needs to have a latent nuclear weapons capability in other words, an option, ... But there is much less agreement about whether it makes sense for Iran to produce nuclear weapons.

Either they will send Iran to the UN Security Council immediately because Iran has resumed conversion activities and broken the suspension, or the IAEA board of governors will give Iran an ultimatum, some period of time to end the conversion activities,

The statement will be calling on Iran to restore a suspension of nuclear fuel activities.

The tide of opinion in Tehran seems to have shifted.

I hope the EU3 don't compromise. The draft resolution is excellent. We should force the Russians to vote,

Finally, people from the Bush Administration argue that Iran is not really serious about making any nuclear deal that would require it to give up its nuclear weapons option and that Iran is likely to cheat on any deal in the future.

From Iran's point of view, the consensus at the IAEA was broken. It's an important victory for them,

On the other hand, if Moscow promised to support referral after another deadline, I'd be willing to accept a short delay.

But there seems to be less agreement over whether it makes sense for Iran to actually produce a nuclear weapon.

We estimate, if everything goes right, if they throw all their effort into solving their problems, they might be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear weapon within five years.

In the case of Iraq the quality of intelligence and the analysis of that intelligence was abysmally bad.

Whether it is by consensus or by vote, either way it ends up in New York.

My trip has gone very well. I've really had a great opportunity to meet people...and this talk was terrific. I'm very happy with the attendance I got a lot of very good questions I wish it could have gone on a little longer.

I don't see any choice. Since Iran has broken the political deal it reached with the IAEA board of governors, I think the board has no choice but to send it to New York,

Iran has worked to curry favor with the Chinese and the Russians for the last 2 12 years because they were trying to build political protection at the IAEA board.

Over the last two years, Iran's policy has been dominated by the desire to avoid referral to the Security Council, and Iran has been prepared to accept limits on its nuclear program in order to achieve that, ... It does appear that Iran feels it's in a much stronger position.