I think the council will react very cautiously, very incrementally. It will take time, but there is no urgency. Iran is still a couple of years from having a nuclear-weapons capability, and there are some pretty significant technical problems.
More Quotes from Gary Samore:
The tide of opinion in Tehran seems to have shifted.Gary Samore
Iran has worked to curry favor with the Chinese and the Russians for the last 2 12 years because they were trying to build political protection at the IAEA board.
Gary Samore
The most interesting discussion is about political calculations and how Iran weighs the risks and benefits of acquiring nuclear weapons capability.
Gary Samore
From Iran's point of view, the consensus at the IAEA was broken. It's an important victory for them,
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But such conclusions in Tehran are a high-stakes gamble, as is likely to be any Security Council response. Numerous safeguard violations over the past 20 years means that until Iran restores confidence in its nuclear program, it should accept limits on activities that are dual use, and have military applications, ... There is a very strong legal case, but Council members are going to be very reluctant to impose significant sanctions on Iran.
Gary Samore
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