This is the first evidence that things might be better than they thought, and I think traders don't quite know what to do. I think we've been conditioned to bad news -- it's like a beaten-up prize fighter. I think it's a dangerous time to look for more of the same, meaning looking for more negative.
More Quotes from Phil Dow:
The volume expansion indicates that you might be seeing individuals, rather than just traders, getting involved. But, volumes in general are still pretty weak. Odds are that if this is the real thing, you'll see daily volumes of 1.6 billion and 1.7 billion -- and then it will be obvious to everyone we are in a bull market.Phil Dow
You've got to get back to what really moves stocks, and that's earnings. It's not international conflict -- that's always been there. And the market has delivered, despite Vietnam, Sept. 11, and every other horrific thing we've had.
Phil Dow
If you look at the earnings so far, we've had on balance in-line or mildly positive surprises. Yet the guidance going forward had been guarded. If that continues, you're looking at a more subdued market response this week.
Phil Dow
I think a productive economy is the main thing people should take home with them. This is a unique period in American history. I think we'll look back on it as a time you wanted to own stocks rather than trade stocks. I think, secondarily, corporate America is showing good earnings reports. The second half of this year may be lower than the second half of last year, but they're still robust, probably in the high teens. I think if you focus on financial guide posts, that eventually will drive prices. I think you'll see the market in general do better as the year wears on.
Phil Dow
Bit by bit we are seeing the pieces of the economic mosaic come together that could support a sustained stock market rally, at least in the short term ... But in the longer term, there are still significant questions, no doubt about it.
Phil Dow
If the focus on the market were to continue to go up even with bad news, that would indicate to me we're going to recover.
Phil Dow
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