Phil Dow Quotes (37 Quotes)


    This year I was a little surprised (at) how negatively people viewed the economy and that's translated into a very cautious trading community on Wall Street, ... I think we did pretty well. We had a 4.4 percent growth in GDP. That's better than in recent history and better than some of our trading partners.

    I think a productive economy is the main thing people should take home with them. This is a unique period in American history. I think we'll look back on it as a time you wanted to own stocks rather than trade stocks. I think, secondarily, corporate America is showing good earnings reports. The second half of this year may be lower than the second half of last year, but they're still robust, probably in the high teens. I think if you focus on financial guide posts, that eventually will drive prices. I think you'll see the market in general do better as the year wears on.

    They have the best of breed kinds of companies in two really good industries. They have a natural gas pipeline company. In addition, a fiber optic network which will be 33,000 miles. Each have the wind at their back and we think the combined businesses conservatively are worth 60. Right now the stock trades for around 45. The company just announced a way to unlock that value with a spin-off of their Williams Communications Group. So we think it's just a matter of time before that stock reaches 60.

    We're at the tenderloin of the earnings season and you are going to see powerful earnings reports from a lot of companies this week, and I think while we have got economic reports, earnings are going to be the focal point of the market right now, ... I th

    This is the first evidence that things might be better than they thought, and I think traders don't quite know what to do. I think we've been conditioned to bad news -- it's like a beaten-up prize fighter. I think it's a dangerous time to look for more of the same, meaning looking for more negative.


    Today's action depends on your investment philosophy,

    This year, the market is trying to tell you to be selective. If you look at the stocks that have moved, it really has not been just 30 big stocks it's been all asset classes, all styles -- value and growth have delivered. The ones that are really getting fundamental financial guide, post-traction are those that are delivering. So my guess is selectivity is the key, and I think you've got to be in kind of best-of-breed solutions right now.

    What I see is this pervasive opinion that there will be a better time to buy stocks and that we'll all know it when it comes. But it's never that way. The only way to participate in a market recovery is to be in it beforehand.

    There was just a tremendous amount of concern, and the market held, ... In fact if you look at third-quarter performance, it was pretty good across the board.

    Overall, I think there's been a profound change in sentiment after the market hit its five-year low in early October, ... The market is factoring in a possible resolution of the Iraq crisis. With the Republican victories in the midterm elections, there's a possibility of a tax cut for dividends. That's like a tectonic shift in fundamentals.

    If the focus on the market were to continue to go up even with bad news, that would indicate to me we're going to recover.

    It was a strong day for technology and small stocks. But most major stocks were mediocre performers,

    It's frightening if you chase performance. One reason why investors went into Japan is that they saw the markets perked up there.

    My sense is that we may be at a really important transition point. Yesterday was a pretty important day. (The market) turned around on expanding volume, which indicated some real buying going on.

    I think we are in a recovery, but no one ever believes it ahead of time. To me, it's pretty encouraging to see volume expand when the market is going up. And while the news is not improving, the market seems to be holding up.

    If you look at our portfolio that we run here with a three-year track record, basically it's equal to the SP the last three years. This year we're down about 1.8, 1.9 percent versus an SP that's significantly more than that down.

    We like Waters Corporation, ... It's a company that specializes in equipment for biotech research, great balance sheet, firm fundamentals. In financials, we would throw in Wells Fargo, TCF Financial Corporation, and Citigroup.

    Next year people will still be cautious. At the same time I anticipate corporate earnings and economic growth will come in better than expected,

    The volume expansion indicates that you might be seeing individuals, rather than just traders, getting involved. But, volumes in general are still pretty weak. Odds are that if this is the real thing, you'll see daily volumes of 1.6 billion and 1.7 billion -- and then it will be obvious to everyone we are in a bull market.

    We're trying to take advantage of value where we can see it, and there are some obvious places. Computer Associates ( CA Research , Estimates ) is the third-largest independent software company. It trades at a PE multiple on forward earnings. It's about a third of Microsoft's today. It's growing at about 16, 17 percent, trades for about 13 times earnings. We think it's a very attractive asset. We think it's a great one and could go up as much as 30, 40 percent in the coming year.

    Try to buy those kinds of names when they're out of favor and hold on to them for long periods of time,

    You don't need to worry what the economy is doing people need to buy their drugs.

    There is an absolute certainty among investors that whatever news that happens is going to be bad. The October lows aren't sacrosanct and could be broken. We have a nation that's pre-occupied with what can go wrong. We'd need a booster shot of good news to move anywhere.

    If you look at the earnings so far, we've had on balance in-line or mildly positive surprises. Yet the guidance going forward had been guarded. If that continues, you're looking at a more subdued market response this week.

    You've got to get back to what really moves stocks, and that's earnings. It's not international conflict -- that's always been there. And the market has delivered, despite Vietnam, Sept. 11, and every other horrific thing we've had.

    It's amazing to see intellectual capital turn into profits so quickly.

    I don't believe that the market is ready for serial rate increases. We'll just have to wait and see what is said, but my suspicion is, right on the heels of this meeting . . . it's probably going to be a tug of war.

    Anadarko is down relatively dramatically in the recent week, ... For value, we think the best name in the group is Chieftain International.

    Terrorism threats have been a wildcard out there and it looks like its happened again, ... It certainly looks like there is panic selling going on in Europe, but the day could still end flat to modestly higher.

    I think Greenspan had a calming effect once all the returns were in and people had the opportunity to reflect on what he said.

    If you have any kind of cut or a neutral bias, the markets will move higher.

    You're going to see a lot of companies voluntarily take the smoke and mirrors out of their business, ... We shouldn't expect to see an immediate recovery, but eventually people will regain confidence.

    Bit by bit we are seeing the pieces of the economic mosaic come together that could support a sustained stock market rally, at least in the short term ... But in the longer term, there are still significant questions, no doubt about it.

    One surprise in 2005 will be that business capital spending will be back in a big way especially as cash is at record levels on balance sheets and as companies ensure that they stay competitive.

    The trading activity has a negative bias. The news has been negative and it's frustrating for investors and traders alike.

    The main problem is things keep getting worse in the technology space.

    With today's big decline, this isn't a time to be concerned about additional downside but about what can go right in the coming months, primarily a gradual economic recovery,


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