It's a bit difficult to interpret the data because of revisions. It does appear that the export situation continues to get worse. Imports are flattening out, but exports are decreasing. And this will act as a drag on economic activity.
More Quotes from Kevin Logan:
If there were a quick resolution to the Iraq confrontation, there would be brief euphoria, but we would come back to basics, which are that companies are not making enough money to meet profit expectations, their balance sheets have a lot of debt, and there's not a lot of room for expansion.Kevin Logan
They've been on this long path towards neutral policy and now that we're in that range, they may decide it would be appropriate to soften the message they are sending out.
Kevin Logan
Prior to the war, the stock market was at its lowest because people were pricing in a more intense military conflict, which hasn't happened, ... The market has decided that these events weren't nearly as damaging as they might have been to the global economy.
Kevin Logan
This is more of a contemporaneous indicator -- if business picks up and firms find they need to stock more inventory, we will see lending pick up,
Kevin Logan
Consumer spending was really slowing down a lot in August and September. We're entering the fourth quarter on a weak note.
Kevin Logan
They haven't changed (their bias). The weakness in corporate profits is a problem, and investment continues to decline.
Kevin Logan
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