Kevin Logan Quotes (25 Quotes)

They've changed their risk assessment that's a subtle shift, but it is a shift. If you believe that inflation pressures will mount, they're closer to, rather than further from, a policy move.

It (the fourth quarter GDP report) has no influence on next week's decision, so it really depends on what they learn about the economy over the next couple of months.

They haven't changed (their bias). The weakness in corporate profits is a problem, and investment continues to decline.

The only reason we wouldn't be able to make it (to the benefit concert) is if Pete got listed and we needed to leave. As soon as they list him then we need to get him down immediately.

Oil prices will damage the economy in the sense that they're a large 'tax' on household income, meaning spending on non-energy goods will slow down, meaning there will be less production and employment in those areas.

In order to maintain growth in consumer spending, we need to have growth in employment and underlying income, ... Without that, we'll see a slowdown in consumption -- which is what I expect to happen.

The jobless claims were lower because the weather was good.

Seven percent is not an unreasonable estimate for GDP growth. Retail sales were strong, especially with the revisions. Consumer spending possibly grew 12 percent at an annual rate. That's really charging right along.

Contrary to what people in the market are saying, inflation is not a problem to the Fed, ... because an economic slowdown is invariably followed by a rise in inflationary pressures.

With Greenspan next week, if there is any sniff that maybe they are coming close to the end of their tightening, then maybe these flattening trades are not going to pay off as much as they have already, and that is why people are being a little more cautious about the flattening trades.

If there were a quick resolution to the Iraq confrontation, there would be brief euphoria, but we would come back to basics, which are that companies are not making enough money to meet profit expectations, their balance sheets have a lot of debt, and there's not a lot of room for expansion.

The data today confirmed in people's minds that the economy is slowing, and there may be no need for further tightening.

It's a bit difficult to interpret the data because of revisions. It does appear that the export situation continues to get worse. Imports are flattening out, but exports are decreasing. And this will act as a drag on economic activity.

The Fed can look right through this and see that the underlying strength of the economy is greater than the number suggests.

Consumer spending was really slowing down a lot in August and September. We're entering the fourth quarter on a weak note.

Prior to the war, the stock market was at its lowest because people were pricing in a more intense military conflict, which hasn't happened, ... The market has decided that these events weren't nearly as damaging as they might have been to the global economy.

They've been on this long path towards neutral policy and now that we're in that range, they may decide it would be appropriate to soften the message they are sending out.

What it suggests is that the pace of growth, although pretty robust, is likely to slow a bit going forward.

What is important for the Fed is whether they can look at this and seen any inflation pressures emerging, and on that score it doesn't seem to be the case.

The real story here is the (slower) growth of consumption in the quarter.

The uptrend seen for the past year or so in housing seems to be intact.

This is more of a contemporaneous indicator -- if business picks up and firms find they need to stock more inventory, we will see lending pick up,

Debt is not in itself going to be a cause of contraction in consumer spending, but it could exacerbate any negative change that does occur.

It's going to bother consumers. When you look at consumer confidence over time, the main things that affect it are employment and income but there are other events that can affect confidence, if only temporarily, and war is clearly one of them.

For the last few months or so sales seem to have flattened out. This may be the beginning of a sideways movement. The rise in short-term interest rates and higher prices tend to slow down the turnover of houses.