My favorite indicator - my deserted island variable, meaning this is what I'd ask for if I were on a deserted island - is the Treasury yield curve. That's telling you we're expecting very strong growth over the next four quarters, albeit in the second half of next year.
More Quotes from Gerald Cohen:
It's consistent with the view that things are not good now, but there's the potential for a pickup. The only question is what the magnitude of the pickup is going to be, and we're not as sanguine as Greenspan is about that.Gerald Cohen
The Chicago PMI, along with other mixed data we've been getting, points, in my mind, to a turning point, ... But you have to be careful reading too much into this -- it's a survey of 200 firms in the Chicago area with a 50 percent response rate. I think we're at a turning point and will get a rebound, but the strength of that rebound is still in question.
Gerald Cohen
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Gerald Cohen
A self-sustaining recovery depends on job growth. And I think we will get some going forward.
Gerald Cohen
I think the Fed is on hold tomorrow and for the foreseeable future. We've actually been proponents of the view for quite a while that the economy was going to moderate, and it was important for the Fed to be patient. And one of the dangers was if the Fed kept raising rates, that they would slow the economy a lot more than they would want. So we think that there are enough signs of moderation that the Fed will remain on hold, and we think that signs of moderation will continue. So we think the Fed will be on hold through the end of this year and into early next year.
Gerald Cohen
Business intelligence is not just about turning data into information, rather organizations need that data to impact how their business operates and responds to the changing marketplace.
Gerald Cohen
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