I think the Fed is on hold tomorrow and for the foreseeable future. We've actually been proponents of the view for quite a while that the economy was going to moderate, and it was important for the Fed to be patient. And one of the dangers was if the Fed kept raising rates, that they would slow the economy a lot more than they would want. So we think that there are enough signs of moderation that the Fed will remain on hold, and we think that signs of moderation will continue. So we think the Fed will be on hold through the end of this year and into early next year.
More Quotes from Gerald Cohen:
The core is up 0.3 percent over the last year, and so there really is no inflation, ... In the first year of recoveries, consumer price inflation tends to fall as it did in the past 40 years. We believe inflation should not be an issue for the foreseeable future.Gerald Cohen
The Chicago PMI, along with other mixed data we've been getting, points, in my mind, to a turning point, ... But you have to be careful reading too much into this -- it's a survey of 200 firms in the Chicago area with a 50 percent response rate. I think we're at a turning point and will get a rebound, but the strength of that rebound is still in question.
Gerald Cohen
We're talking about the difference between a little below and a little above, but the number is consistent with the view that we're going to see payrolls flat to lower in August.
Gerald Cohen
What group often combines a keen sense of humor with bad taste ... College students.
Gerald Cohen
It's consistent with the view that things are not good now, but there's the potential for a pickup. The only question is what the magnitude of the pickup is going to be, and we're not as sanguine as Greenspan is about that.
Gerald Cohen
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