Our feeling is that because you have a new central banker, they are going to want to err on the side of restraint against inflation.
More Quotes from Ethan Harris:
The number itself wasn't very surprising, ... (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan's comments last week that the trade gap might start getting smaller raised attention and some hopes. But I didn't agree with him about that.Ethan Harris
The Fed is trying to get us to stop listening to them and start listening to the forecast. If inflation picks up, and growth stays persistently above 3.25 percent, the Fed has more tightening rate raising to do.
Ethan Harris
The idea that the recovery has started has been clearly confirmed. But there's no way to know the sustainability of the recovery.
Ethan Harris
They'll wait to see how Christmas shapes up, and if it's weak, they'll give another rate cut in January.
Ethan Harris
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs, ... The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
Ethan Harris
The market is getting lulled into sleep here. In reality we think that both the inflation numbers and the growth numbers will keep the pressure on the Fed.
Ethan Harris
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